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Margin of error

This article is about the statistical precision of estimates from sample surveys. For observational errors, see Observational error. For safety margins in engineering, see Factor of safety. For tolerance in engineering, see Engineering tolerance. For the eponymous movie, see Margin for error (film).
Probability densities of polls of different sizes, each color-coded to its 95% confidence interval (below), margin of error (left), and sample size (right). Each interval reflects the range within which one may have 95% confidence that the true percentage may be found, given a reported percentage of 50%. The margin of error is half the confidence interval (also, the radius of the interval). The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error. Also, the further from 50% the reported percentage, the smaller the margin of error.

The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the entire population. The margin of error will be positive whenever a population is incompletely sampled and the outcome measure has positive variance, which is to say, whenever the measure varies.

The term margin of error is often used in non-survey contexts to indicate observational error in reporting measured quantities.

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